Towards climate-neutral and resilient energy networks across Europe : advice on draft scenarios under the EU regulation on trans-European energy networks

The EU is committed to reducing its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to net zero by 2050 at the latest and to aiming to achieve net negative emissions thereafter. Achieving these objectives requires adapting and developing the EU's energy infrastructure in a way that supports rapid electrification, coupled with fossil fuel phase-out and adequate carbon dioxide (CO2) value chains, and the scale-up of renewable electricity generation and energy system integration. The EU's trans-European networks for energy (TEN-E) policy helps reach that goal by setting out a process to identify and select energy and CO2 infrastructure projects that could benefit from financial and regulatory support. The identification of infrastructure needs and the selection of cross-border projects of high EU relevance rely on the 10-year network development plan (TYNDP) process. At the heart of this process are the EU-wide energy scenarios that are developed jointly by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) and the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) every 2 years. The joint scenarios create investment landscapes in which the value of new cross-border infrastructure projects is assessed. To ensure that the infrastructure projects effectively contribute to achieving the EU's climate neutrality objectives, the TEN-E regulation invites the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (ESABCC, hereafter "the Advisory Board") to deliver opinions at different stages of the TYNDP process (EU, 2022). In this report, the Advisory Board presents its findings and recommendations from the assessment of the draft joint scenarios published by ENTSO-E and ENTSOG in May 2024. This advice builds on the Advisory Board's 2022 recommendations on scenario guidelines for TEN-E that it gave to the European Union Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) (ESABCC, 2022), its 2023 recommendations on methodologies for a harmonised EU-level cost-benefit analysis (ESABCC, 2023a) and its 2024 recommendations for the more effective implementation and design of the EU climate policy framework (ESABCC, 2024).