Tracking macroeconomic responses to accumulated alpha and changing currency dominance

This paper examines the empirical outcomes of the policies of nine monetary authorities (eight OECD nations and the Euro zone) so as to infer the strength and stability of the economic relationships behind those policies. Governments, responding to earlier rampant inflation, have in recent decades avowed to pursue monetary policies to maintain inflation at a low stable rate. In recent decades, the relationship between inflation and money supply, that is postulated in the received wisdom and confirmed by decades of observation, appears to be breaking down. In examining possible causes of this instability, this paper sees on-going changes in the velocity-of-money to be less plausible than shifting dominance in world currencies or the creative destruction of technological progress. This paper suggests the relative monetary stability of recent decades may be less achievable in the future.