Trade Liberalisation and the Trade-Off Between Growth and the Balance of Payments in Latin America

The broad purpose of trade liberalisation is to raise the rate of growth of countries on a sustainable basis, consistent with the achievement of other macroeconomic objectives. In this article we consider whether trade liberalisation in 17 countries of Latin America has improved the trade-off between gross domestic product (GDP) growth and the trade balance, allowing the countries to grow faster without sacrificing foreign exchange. We find that in the aftermath of liberalisation, the majority of countries did grow faster, but at the expense of a deteriorating trade balance. Testing formally for the impact of trade liberalisation in a full model of trade balance determination, we find that only in Chile and Venezuela has the trade-off unequivocally improved. In other countries there has been a significant deterioration or no change. Nine out of the 17 countries have grown faster post-liberalisation than pre-liberalisation but, except for Chile and Venezuela, at the expense of a wider trade or current account deficit.