Trade relation between MERCOSUR, NAFTA, Andean community and UE15: An analysis in term of trade creation - trade deviation (In French)

This paper determines which gravity models are the best adapted to the study of the trade evolution of several economic areas and the behaviors heterogeneity of the countries that belong to these areas (fixed effect model; random effect model). Applied to the countries of UE15, NAFTA, MERCOSUR, Andean community and APEC, the retained model contains random bilateral effects and has proved to be the most suited to describe the specific bonds between different countries. It enables also to apprehend, in terms of trade creation and trade diversion, the trade relations between the countries of the reference areas and MERCOSUR in particular.