Trading HIV for Sheep : An Estimation of the Sexual Behaviours Response of Female Sex Workers to Tabaski in Senegal

We use novel data on a cohort of female sex workers in Senegal to examine whether a large anticipated shock influences risky sexual behaviour. We study the effect of Tabaski, the most important Islamic festival celebrated in Senegal, in which most households purchase an animal for sacrifice. We exploit the exogenous timing of interviews in the lead-up to Tabaski and focus on condom use measured through a list experiment to limit social desirability bias. Our main result indicates that condom use by female sex workers falls by 49.5 percentage points (76%) in the week preceding Tabaski. Supporting evidence is consistent with economic pressure of Tabaski being the driver of behaviour change, in a context where there is a risk premia to engaging in condomless sex. Overall, the study suggests that vulnerable women can be put at further risk of HIV in the presence of an anticipated shock