Trends of methane emissions and their impact on ozone concentrations at the European and global levels

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas and as an air pollutant it contributes to tropospheric ozone formation, which is detrimental to health. About 60% of total global methane emissions stems from anthropogenic emissions, and about 40% from natural sources. In 2022, Europe contributed to 5.2% of the global anthropogenic methane emissions. Satellites are now commonly used to track methane leakages from fossil fuel production sites, transmission systems, ships and distribution systems, which remain the largest source of uncertainties regarding emissions. Based on the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) global surface observation network, the concentration in 2017-2023, is close to the value of 1925 ppb and, by 2030, is projected to reach 1796 to 2099 ppb depending on which scenario is considered. A significant proportion of European population is still exposed to concentrations of ozone that are near or above the target values set by the EU legislation and the WHO guidelines. Compared to 2015, the number of premature deaths associated to methane related background ozone in Europe in 2050 is projected to increase by 7000 to 8000 (68% to 78%) compared to 2015 for the high emission scenarios and decrease by 700 to 1700 (-7% to -16%) for the high mitigation scenarios. Regarding impacts on agriculture and major crops, our results for the high emission scenarios, show global crop yield losses increasing by 13% to 16% in 2030 compared to 2015 and decreasing by 32% to 37% for the high mitigation scenarios. The Global Methane Pledge (GMP) is a collectively voluntary commitment to reduce global anthropogenic methane emissions across all sectors by at least 30 percent below 2020 levels by 2030 that was launched at COP26 by the European Union and the United States. If all actions were implemented globally to their maximum technical mitigation potential, the emission reduction would be beyond the GMP goal. International cooperation engaging public and private bodies will be key to curb methane emissions and their impact on air quality. This report is intended to inform the implementation and monitoring of the EU strategy to reduce methane emissions (COM/2020/663), although it is not formally linked to the process.