Trust in a changing world: Social cohesion and the social contract in uncertain times

This paper examines the erosion of trust as a global phenomenon, highlighting its implications for social cohesion and governance. Using data from the World Values Survey and regional barometers, the analysis focuses on trust's dual dimensions-interpersonal and institutional-within different socio-economic and geopolitical contexts. Results show a sharp decline in institutional trust worldwide, coupled with a mixed trajectory for interpersonal trust. Trust erosion is particularly acute in low-income countries and younger generations, exacerbated by inequality, corruption, and political instability. Trust levels are shown to significantly impact social cohesion, civic engagement, and perceptions of governance. A positive correlation is observed between institutional trust and economic redistribution, underscoring the role of effective governance in trust-building. The paper concludes by emphasizing the need for institutional reform and global cooperation to restore trust, particularly in fragile states, to strengthen social contracts and foster sustainable development.