Turkey on the path to autocracy: Economic consequences and policy options for the EU and Germany

Turkey is at risk of descending into autocracy. That risk persists even though the resistance put up by the opposition Republican People's Party following the arrest of Mayor of İstanbul Ekrem İmamoğlu has saved the party - at least for now - from being placed under a trustee and the İstanbul Metropolitan Municipality from being subjected to the administration of the state. The complete autocratisation of Turkey can be prevented only if opposition resistance receives broad and consistent support from among the population, economic growth is jeopardised by political instability and the European Union responds in a unified manner. It is in the interest of neither the EU nor Germany for Turkey to become politically and economically destabilised through further autocratisation, as this would impede the country's ability to fulfil its regional responsibilities, which include curbing migration, deterring Russia and stabilising Syria. The EU can exercise a constructive influence over Turkey by offering the prospect of talks on the modernisation of the customs union and the facilitation of visas and by promising it a greater say in the European security architecture - on condition that Ankara respects democratic principles and the rule of law.