Turkey's Accession to the EU:What Will the Common Agricultural Policy Cost?

At the EU Council in December 2004, European heads of governments will decide on apotential date for the start of EU accession negotiations with Turkey. Various recent analysesassess the cost of applying the Common Agricultural Policy of the EU (CAP) to Turkeywithout taking into account the specific structure of the agricultural sector in Turkey, whichwould determine the receipts from EU funds. This paper assesses potential budgetary effectsresulting from the application of the CAP to Turkey, if Turkey should accede in 2014. Theanalysis is based on macroeconomic projections from the literature, equilibrium modelling ofthe Turkish agricultural sector, and projections of the future development of the CAP. It isfound that total EU budgetary outlays for the application of the CAP to Turkey could totalabout €3.3 billion in 2014 and rise to €5 billion in 2024 due to full phasing in of directpayments and rural development policies. The resulting net transfer under the CAP to Turkeywould be about €1.6 billion in 2014 and could increase to €2.6 billion in 2024. Such sumstake a backseat to projected transfers under the structural policy of the EU and the overallpolitical project of including Turkey in the EU....