Turkish migration in Europe: EU accession and migration flows

This paper analyses the impact of Turkey's potential EU membership on emigration from Turkey to the European Union. We apply panel data estimators using the data on emigration from EU15 countries into Germany and the Netherlands in order to construct possible future scenarios of Turkish migration to the EU. Three scenarios of migration, pessimistic, realistic and optimistic (depending on the fears related to the expected impact of Turkish migration on the EU labour markets), are drawn and future migration from Turkey into Germany and the Netherlands during the next 25 years is discussed in detail. We conclude that Turkish EU accession, should it happen in the foreseeable future, will not have any serious consequences in terms of massive migration flows.