UMA ESTIMATIVA DA DEMANDA INDUSTRIAL DE ENERGIA ELÉTRICA NO BRASIL: 1974-2002

This work aims to quantify the relations between the electricity demand and its main determinants in the Industrial sector of Brazil, inthe period between 1974 and 2002. After identifying that the studied series were nonstationary, the use of the Cointegration Approachand an Error-Correction Mechanism was opted . The results obtained have turned out as according to the expected. The industrialelectricity demand is price inelastic in both short and long run. The results still pointed out that such demand is inelastic to income in theshort run, but elastic in the long run. The parameter estimated for a substitute factor to the energy was not significant, indicating that thereis no close substitute for electricity in the Industrial sector. This fact evidenced the necessity of a program of reorganization andexpansion for the Brazilian Electrical system as condition for the maintenance and the growth of the industrial activity in the country.