Understanding inflation dynamics in the Kingdom of Eswatini: a univariate approach

This research uses annual time series data on inflation rates in the Kingdom of Eswatini from 1966 to 2017, to model and forecast inflation using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests indicate that the H series is I (1). The study presents the ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model for predicting inflation in the Kingdom of Eswatini. The diagnostic tests further imply that the presented optimal model is actually stable and acceptable for predicting inflation in the Kingdom of Eswatini. The results of the study apparently show that inflation in the Kingdom of Eswatini is likely to continue on an upwards trajectory in the next decade. The study basically encourages policy makers to make use of tight monetary and fiscal policy measures in order to control inflation in the Kingdom of Eswatini.