Unravelling a Riddle: The Outlook for Russian Oil

Russia's oil output has been declining. Yet the potential for new discoveries and development remains huge. Whether these opportunities will be seized and current attrition arrested depends on the hydrocarbon sector regime now evolving. Uncertainties on legislation, jurisdictional boundaries, pricing policies and political structures make the investment climate less than benign. Such uncertainties lead to a very marked spread in expectations about future levels of Russian oil output.