USING REAL OPTIONS TO EVALUATE PRODUCER INVESTMENT IN NEW GENERATION COOPERATIVES

New Generation Cooperatives have emerged as a contemporary means for farmers to invest in further processing activities. This paper considers real options as the basis for evaluating producer investment in a start-up cooperative that involves technological uncertainty. The investment and risk inherent in producer membership in an NGC is analyzed using real options theory logic. Real options theory has recently been extended to technology positioning projects and how the extent of uncertainty influences the value of a technology "option". Conventional net present value formulas have been shown to be limited when the conditions of the investment require substantial commitment under uncertainty, such as investments in technology. Implications for producers are drawn from the analysis. Producers always have the alternative of not investing in the initial start-up but waiting and buying in at a later time, perhaps when less uncertainty prevails. Results indicate that producers are better able to evaluate investment in a NGC using real options.