VALUATION OF NEW SPRING WHEAT VARIETIES: TRADEOFFS FOR GROWERS AND END-USERS

Variety release decisions involve a number of tradeoffs, usually between grower and end-user characteristics as well as significant uncertainties about agronomic, quality, and economic variables. In this study, methodologies were developed to value tradeoffs for grower and end-user characteristics for wheat. The models capture effects of variability in agronomic, quality, and economic variables. The models were applied for three experimental varieties which have since been released and for two hypothetical varieties. Results indicate two of the experimental varieties provide improvements in grower and end-use value over most of the incumbents. Comparison of a risk adjusted portfolio model consisting of characteristics of end-use and grower values with traditional stochastic dominance techniques (tested for level of significance) indicate similar results. However, the portfolio model incorporates aspects of correlation between grower and end-use values simultaneously.