Visitando vizinhos: uma análise da série histórica de produção de bens de capital no Brasil utilizando diagramas de recorrência

Encountering neighbors: an analysis of capital goods production in Brazil using recurrence plot diagrams - The objective of the paper is to identify possible non-linearities in Brazilian capital goods production in the period January/1975-January/2002. Using the techniques of recurrence plots diagrams and nearest neighbors forecasting, we found evidences that investments in Brazil present a non negligible non-linear component. Although it has not been the purpose of the paper to identify the possible source of that dynamics, the empiric results found authorize to speculate that the dynamics of some important macroeconomic variables in Brazil might be more sensitive to economic policy variability than it is usually supposed. The implication is that the ability to foresee those effects, within a significant statistical margin, can be very reduced in periods in which the dynamics of the series becomes more sensitive in relation to initial conditions; the techniques here deployed, however, suggest to be possible identify the periods where that forecast is less reliable.