War, occupation, and the rule of law : evidence from Ukraine's Donbas conflict

Russia's invasion and occupation of Ukrainian territory since 2014 has forced its government to implement emergency measures that challenge legal order. This paper examines how citizens' exposure to these security responses shapes their perceptions of the rule of law. Using proximity to war violence as a proxy for state emergency measures, we analyse World Values Survey data collected before (2011) and after (2020) the Donbas conflict alongside spatially weighted conflict data. Employing models with oblast fixed effects and Mundlak specifications, we find that greater exposure to war violence produces divergent effects on legal order dimensions: undermining confidence in state institutions while simultaneously strengthening support for constitutional constraints on power. These findings reveal how citizens distinguish between immediate legal practices and foundational governance principles when evaluating their legal system under threat. State responses to external aggression can paradoxically reinforce democratic commitments while challenging institutional trust, offering insights into resilience under occupation.