WHEAT BUFFER STOCKS AND TRADE IN AN EFFICIENT GLOBAL ECONOMY

This study assesses storage and trade of wheat in an integrated global economy. Domestic and international linkages are analyzed using a dynamic rational expectations model of the world wheat market. The results of this study demonstrate the importance of endogenizing both storage and trade in studying commodity markets. Results suggest an optimal US buffer stock level of 150 million bushel. Results indicate that past government stockholdings have not followed efficient market outcomes. Private markets likely would perform better in the absence of government market distortions. Results indicate that elimination of the Export Enhancement Program by the US and of export restitution payments by the EU is unlikely to have a major impact on wheat exports from the two regions, but will save millions of tax dollars in both regions.