Who wins wars?

Jonathan Federle, Dominic Rohner, and Moritz Schularick

Economic resources are often seen as decisive for the outcomes of military conflicts. This paper asks whether “deeper pockets” help win wars. We construct a fine-grained dataset covering more than 700 interstate disputes and rely on exogenous resource price shocks to estimate the causal effect of windfall gains on winning chances in interstate conflicts. We find a statistically significant and quantitatively large impact of windfall gains on winning odds and show that a key channel of transmission is a surge in military spending, after an exogenous increase in government revenues.

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Year of publication:	[2025]
Authors:	Federle, Jonathan-Julian ; Rohner, Dominic ; Schularick, Moritz
Publisher:	[Kiel] : Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Subject:	Interstate disputes \| International wars \| Commodity prices \| Conflict outcomes \| Military expenditures \| Militärausgaben \| Military expenditure \| Welt \| World \| Krieg \| War \| Rohstoffpreis \| Commodity price \| Politischer Konflikt \| Political conflict

Extent:	1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten) Illustrationen
Series:	Kiel working paper. - Kiel : [Verlag nicht ermittelbar], ISSN 1862-1155, ZDB-ID 2107612-1. - Vol. no. 2280 (January 2025)
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Type of publication (narrower categories):	Graue Literatur ; Non-commercial literature ; Arbeitspapier ; Working Paper
Language:	English
Other identifiers:	hdl:10419/310329 [Handle]
Classification:	D74 - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances ; F51 - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions ; H56 - National Security and War ; N40 - Government, War, Law, and Regulation. General, International, or Comparative ; q02
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015193812