• Non-technical summary
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Modelling Framework
  • 3. Data and definitions
  • 4. Results
  • (a) Aggregate: why is there not a strong positive relationshipbetween aggregate poverty and aggregate unemployment?
  • (b) What factors are associated with individuals’ vulnerability to thecycle?
  • 5. Conclusions
  • References
  • Appendix