Why They Did It : the Context of Russian Interference in the 2016 US Presidential Election

By September 2016, the US Intelligence Community was quite certain that Russian citizens, organizations and government agencies were interfering in the US presidential election campaign in an effort to weaken the US political system and install their preferred candidate in the White House. The CIA, FBI and NSA asserted that Russian President Vladimir Putin had personally ordered the intervention. This paper considers why the Russian Federation carried out its campaign of interference in the 2016 US elections, putting the action in the context of Russian and international politics. By 2015 the Russian Federation had the capacity to intervene in the US election. Although Putin has consolidated his power and authority for the moment, events in the world since the Russian annexation of Crimea and the invasion of the Ukrainian Donbass in 2014 have diminished Russia’s claim to be a great power, despite its intervention in the on-going civil war in Syria. It had become increasingly isolated. The 2016 election presented an opportunity for President Putin to try to reverse those trends. He hoped to improve Russia’s position in the world and thereby to maintain and strengthen his own power within Russia