Will imitators follow pioneer consumers in the adoption of solar thermal systems? Empirical evidence for North-West Germany

In Germany, solar thermal systems (STS) have only diused to a minor extentyet. This paper analyzes, which demand side factors are decisive for thefurther proliferation of this environmentally benign technology. Making use ofa consumer survey in North-West Germany in 2007, we examine the followingparameters: positive environmental attitude, knowledge of the applicability ofSTS to satisfy consumer needs, and the presence of STS among peer consumers.Drawing upon theoretical foundations from innovation economics and evolutionaryconsumer theory, we posit that these variables play a dierent role at distinctstages of the product's diusion process. Among nonowners, concrete plans topurchase a system within the subsequent two years are distinguished from thegeneral interest to invest into this technology within the next ve years. Probitmodelsare estimated to test our hypotheses. Our results do not indicate a strongtake-o of product diusion within the next years. By generating interest for theproduct, knowledge and environmental attitude as well as household income areimportant determinants of prospective adoptions on the part of the potentialimitators. However, only the behavior of peers appears to act as a trigger to thediusion of this technology.