WORLD FEED BARLEY TRADE UNDER ALTERNATIVE TRADE POLICY SCENARIOS

A spatial equilibrium model based on a quadratic programming algorithm was developed to analyze world feed barley trade and international competition among major exporters (Australia, Canada, the European Union, and the United States) under the current and alternative trade policy scenarios. The U.S. Export Enhancement Program (EEP) plays an important role to maintain U.S. market share in importing countries. Eliminating Canadian rail subsidy decreases Canadian offshore exports, but greatly increases its exports to the United States. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) increases feed barley trade within North America, but has little impact on world trade flows for feed barley. Canada benefits most under the Uruguay Round Agreement of GATT and the world free trade through significantly higher exports to offshore markets and the United States. Australia also gains from free trade. The European Union is worse off under free trade.