Yield spreads as predictors of recessions in a core European economic area

The estimation of probabilities of recessions/weak economic activity based on probit analyses indicates that the development of the German yield spread as well as the development of a weighted average of European yield spreads have been useful predictors for periods of sluggish economic development in core Europe with a lead time of around three quarters.*

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Year of publication:	1997
Authors:	Funke, N.
Published in:	Applied Economics Letters. - Taylor & Francis Journals, ISSN 1350-4851. - Vol. 4.1997, 11, p. 695-697
Publisher:	Taylor & Francis Journals

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Extent:	text/html
Type of publication:	Article
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009195750