Summary: This paper presents the results of a quantitative study of the implications of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates which was undertaken in the context of the review of the ECBu0092s monetary policy strategy in Spring 2003. Focusing on the euro area, the paper provides an assessment of the likelihood that the short-term nominal interest rate may be constrained at zero and quantifies how the zero-bound constraint may affect the dynamic behaviour of key macroeconomic variables such as the shortterm nominal interest rate, annual inflation and output.
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