Hartwig, Benny; Meinerding, Christoph; Schüler, Yves - 2020
insights from the early-warning literature on financial crises with recent advances on growth-at-risk. Applying this framework … financial cycle signals systemic risk consistently for all countries except Canada. Overall, our results suggest that systemic …-emptive countercyclical macroprudential policy may smooth the financial cycle in boom phases, which then indirectly mitigates the amount of …