Conventional wisdom holds that voters punish governments that implement fiscal austerity. Yet, most empirical studies, which rely on ex-post yearly austerity measures, do not find supportive evidence. This paper revisits the issue using action-based, real-time, ex-ante measures of fiscal...

Wie die AfD und PEGIDA in Deutschland haben auch viele andere populistische Parteien und Bewegungen in Westeuropa im letzten Jahrzehnt sehr erfolgreich Bürgerinnen und Bürger für ihre Politik mobilisiert. Viele dieser Parteien teilen das Narrativ einer anhaltenden gesellschaftlichen...

A common narrative is that COVID-19 cost Trump re-election. We do not find supporting evidence; if anything, the pandemic helped Trump. However, we find substantial evidence that voters abandoned Trump in counties with large increases in health insurance coverage since the Affordable Care Act,...