of overall HICP (direct approach) and whether the aggregation of country forecasts improves upon the forecast of the euro … the indirect approach for 12 and 18 steps ahead for the overall HICP, while for shorter horizons the results are mixed …. For the euro area HICP excluding unprocessed food and energy (HICPX), the indirect forecast outperforms the direct whereas …

inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … (not always for the countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food … and Consensus Economics compared to their counterparts that do not. The gains in forecast accuracy from incorporating …

inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … (not always for the countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food … and Consensus Economics compared to their counterparts that do not. The gains in forecast accuracy from incorporating …

inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … (not always for the countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food … and Consensus Economics compared to their counterparts that do not. The gains in forecast accuracy from incorporating …

inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … (not always for the countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food … and Consensus Economics compared to their counterparts that do not. The gains in forecast accuracy from incorporating …

inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … (not always for the countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food … and Consensus Economics compared to their counterparts that do not. The gains in forecast accuracy from incorporating …

power for inflation or, put differently, whether money growth Granger causes inflation. We use a historical dataset … - consisting of annual Swedish data on money growth and inflation ranging from 1620 to 2021 - and employ state-of-the-art Bayesian … likelihoods - provides strong evidence in favour of money growth Granger causing inflation. This strong evidence is, however, not …

Usually, inflation is optimally forecasted using simple time series models or a Phillips' curve process. However, as …, using web-scrapped daily prices in a mixed-frequency approach (MIDAS models). By not aggregating online inflation to match … official inflation frequency, we obtain better forecasts than the single frequency benchmarks (ARIMA, VAR, and Bridge Equation …

consistent with rational expectations if inflation were not forecastable, and indeed univariate tests show little sign of serial …We consider the puzzling behavior of interest rates and inflation in the United States and the United Kingdom between … inflation should have risen by at least three percentage points in the United States between 1890 and 1910. We consider in an …

In this paper we develop a new model that incorporates inflation expectations and can be used for the structural … reflecting inflation expectations from consumers and firms under the assumption that they are consistent with the expectations … on prices tend to outperform similar models that do not, both for Belgium and the euro area. Furthermore, we find that …