This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of global copper supply shocks. We identify exogenous disruptions to copper supply using a Bayesian structural VAR of the world copper market that combines sign and narrative restrictions. We then trace the international transmission of the identified...

This paper identifies electricity supply shocks by exploiting the fact that variations in wind speed at turbine locations are exogenous with respect to macroeconomic outcomes and drive electricity prices in European wholesale markets inframarginally. Instrumenting electricity price changes with...

The price of oil can rise because of a disruption to supply or an increase in demand. The nature of the price change determines the dynamic effects. As Kilian (2009a) put it: "not all oil price shocks are alike." Using the latest available data, we extend Kilian's analysis using the R ecosystem...

Firms respond heterogeneously to aggregate fluctuations, yet standard linear models impose restrictive assumptions on firm sensitivities. Applying the Generalized Random Forest to U.S. firm-level data, we document strong nonlinearities in how firm characteristics shape responses to macroeconomic...