completed on the one hand and the economy is not completely stifled on the other. … Disinflationsprozess erfolgreich abgeschlossen werden kann, andererseits die Konjunktur nicht völlig abgewürgt wird. … tightening of monetary policy or geopolitical uncertainties. Inflation has peaked, but the rise in consumer prices is still high …

economic growth. For the time being, private consumption is not driving the German economy and is likely to develop in the …Following the winter recession and stagnation in the second quarter of 2023, the economic upswing is proceeding at a … sluggish pace, contrary to expectations over the summer. Weak foreign demand and ongoing inflation have proven to be slowing …

little to growth or even dampen it. Exports are not developing more dynamically because advanced economies grew more slowly … Ukraine, record inflation, and feared gas shortages have taken their toll on the German economy, a drastic slump failed to … the final quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, it contracted by 0.5 and 0.3 percent, respectively. A mild winter …

negatively correlated to actual rates or are not statistically significant. FOMC unemployment forecasts are more accurate than … the FRB staff's, but differences for inflation and GDP growth are not statistically significant …. This paper analyzes the forecasts of GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment by the FRB staff and the FOMC from 2009 …

develops an index in the spirit of Baker et al. (2016) and Caldara and Iacoviello (2018) which tracks developments in U.S. real … method to forecast recessions, at medium horizons, up to 8 months. Moreover, the index contains information not included in … of different robustness checks, including changes to the estimation method, the definition of recessions and controlling …

Rezession in Deutschland wird erheblich tiefer ausfallen als im Dezember angenommen. Wir revidieren unsere Prognose für den … (bisherige Prognose: +0,3 Prozent). …Deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2009 Nr. 463 | März 2009 Kieler Diskussionsbeiträge Institut für Weltwirtschaft …

-recession years are revised slowly; in recession years, the pace of revision picks up but not sufficiently to avoid large forecast … errors. Our second finding is that forecasts of the private sector and the official sector are virtually identical; thus …' (1987) view that behavioral factors-the reluctance to absorb either good or bad news-play a role in the evolution of …

-recession years are revised slowly; in recession years, the pace of revision picks up but not sufficiently to avoid large forecast … errors. Our second finding is that forecasts of the private sector and the official sector are virtually identical; thus …' (1987) view that behavioral factors-the reluctance to absorb either good or bad news-play a role in the evolution of …

likely to be permanent or not. In contrast, some structural VAR methodologies can avoid these shortcomings, even in real … declines in measures of potential output is commonly interpreted as implying that output will not return to previous trends …. Using a variety of estimates of potential output for the U.S. and other countries, we show that these estimates respond …

likely to be permanent or not. In contrast, some structural VAR methodologies can avoid these shortcomings, even in real … declines in measures of potential output is commonly interpreted as implying that output will not return to previous trends …. Using a variety of estimates of potential output for the U.S. and other countries, we show that these estimates respond …