In this paper, we use survey data to analyze the accuracy, unbiasedness, and the efficiency of professional … macroeconomic forecasts. We analyze a large panel of individual forecasts that has not been analyzed in the literature so far. We … provide evidence on the properties of forecasts for all G7 counties and for four diffierent macroeconomic variables. Our …

skew or the degree of probability mass in their tails, are shown not to contribute significantly to improvements in … their location, spread, skew and tail risk on density forecast performance. Overall, we find considerable heterogeneity in … evidence of overconfidence or neglected risks in the expert probability assessments, as reflected also in frequent occurrences …