We document a Kuznets curve for construction productivity in 20th-century America. Homes built per construction worker remained stagnant between 1900 and 1940, boomed after World War II, and then plummeted after 1970. The productivity boom from 1940 to 1970 shows that nothing makes technological...

We document a Kuznets curve for construction productivity in 20th-century America. Homes built per construction worker remained stagnant between 1900 and 1940, boomed after World War II, and then plummeted after 1970. The productivity boom from 1940 to 1970 shows that nothing makes technological...

At the end of this year, the tax rate on Global Intangible Low-Tax Income (GILTI) is set to rise at the same time as the expiration of the individual provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Lawmakers are unlikely to allow these changes to occur. However, simply canceling these scheduled...

In the official models for projections and policy analysis used by the Treasury and the Social Security and Medicare Trustees, many key variables are assumed as a continuation of past trends. Even the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), with more sophisticated models, makes certain simplifying...

In the official models for projections and policy analysis used by the Treasury and the Social Security and Medicare Trustees, many key variables are assumed as a continuation of past trends. Even the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), with more sophisticated models, makes certain simplifying...

During the Biden Administration, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) proposed new rules to protect workers from heat exposure. The intent of this regulation was to improve worker quality of life and reduce health impacts. In this paper, we explore the trends in heat-related...

At the end of this year, the tax rate on Global Intangible Low-Tax Income (GILTI) is set to rise at the same time as the expiration of the individual provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Lawmakers are unlikely to allow these changes to occur. However, simply canceling these scheduled...

The steep rise in US interest rates that started in 2022 led many observers to anticipate severe difficulties for emerging market economies (EMEs). Unlike after the Volcker disinflation of the early 1980s or the bond market turmoil of 1994, however, most EMEs weathered the Fed's monetary...

This paper provides econometric evidence in support of the view that since President Trump's chaotic tariff announcements on Liberation Day, April 2, the dollar has switched from being a safe-haven currency that appreciates in times of market volatility to a "risk-on" currency that moves...

During the Biden Administration, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) proposed new rules to protect workers from heat exposure. The intent of this regulation was to improve worker quality of life and reduce health impacts. In this paper, we explore the trends in heat-related...