This paper introduces a novel panel approach to structural vector autoregressive analysis. For identification, we impose independence of structural innovations at the pooled level. We demonstrate robustness of the method under cross‐sectional correlation and heterogeneity through simulation...

This paper revisits Acemoglu-Johnson the predicted mortality instrument. Drawing on a unique historical data set of disease-specific mortality rates, we reconstruct several versions of the instrument that differ in terms of data usage and instrument relevance. Our findings confirm its predictive...

We propose to treat survey‐based density expectations as compositional data when testing either for heterogeneity in density forecasts across different groups of agents or for changes over time. Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed test has more power relative to both a bootstrap...