This paper addresses the challenge of inflation forecasting by adopting a thick modeling approach that integrates forecasts from time- and frequency-domain models. Frequency-domain models excel at capturing long-term trends while also accounting for short-term fluctuations. Combining these...

We offer a contribution to the analysis of optimal monetary policy. The standard approach to determine what policy rule a central bank should follow is to take a single structural model and minimize the unconditional volatilities of inflation and real activity. In this paper, we propose monetary...

We study the evolution of the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy since July 2021, following the adoption of a new strategy and amid a period of volatile inflation. Utilizing text analysis, we assess changes in the general sentiment of the ECB's communication. Additionally, we employ...

We study the effects of bank transparency on both banks' asset and liquidity risks, and ultimately, on banking sector stability and welfare. We show how enhanced bank transparency increases banks' vulnerability to excessive deposit outflows, but this threat of a liquidity crisis incentivizes...

We investigate the macroeconomic effects of two recent major geopolitical events on the euro area economy, namely, the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. To take into account the heterogeneity of geopolitical events, we do not seek to identify a homogeneous...

We analyse the accuracy of an econometric model for nowcasting GDP growth in a true real-time setting. The analysis is based on a unique sample of nowcasts that were produced in real time and stored. Our results support the use of econometric models for nowcasting because the accuracy of these...

This study examines the floating rate channel-a mechanism through which monetary policy affects firms' investment and credit demand based on their exposure to variable rate loans. Using a granular loan-level dataset from the euro area, we find that firms with variable rate loans significantly...

DSGE models are often specified so that the long-run variation of variables is driven by one or two common trends, which rarely holds in the data. We find that when this discrepancy exists, high-frequency components (measurement errors) capture variable-specific time variation in trends. When...

In managing their capital, banks balance the risk of breaching regulatory requirements against the cost of maintaining and speedily restoring "management" buffers. Using 68 quarters of data on 17 US and 17 euro-area banks, we find systematic reductions in steady-state management buffer targets...

We use confidential loan-level data from the European Central Bank to investigate how changes in the countercyclical capital buffer requirement in Germany affect lending to firms. We find evidence showing that tightening the countercyclical capital buffer leads German banks to reduce the volume...