We use monthly data covering a century-long sample period (1915–2021) to study whether geopolitical risk helps to forecast subsequent gold volatility. We account not only for geopolitical threats and acts, but also for 39 country-specific sources of geopolitical risk. The response of...

The paper reexamines an agent-based model of opinion formation under bounded confidence with heterogeneous agents. The paper is novel in that it extends the standard model of opinion dynamics with the assumption that interacting agents share the desire to exchange opinion. In particular, the...

This paper aims to elaborate a treated data set and apply the boosting methodology to monthly Brazilian macroeconomic variables to check its predictability. The forecasting performed here consists in using linear and nonlinear base-learners, as well as a third type of model that has both linear...