We discuss the timing and strength of the Fed's reaction to the recent inflation surge within an estimated macroeconomic model where long-run inflation expectations are heterogeneous and can lose their anchoring to the target. The resulting inflation scare worsens the real cost of disinflation....

Using a sample of Australians who display high rates of early school-leaving, we compare the trajectories of respondents who left school at each incremental age between 14 and 17 with respondents who left at 18 years old or more, in terms of homelessness, incarceration, substance use and mental...

Competitive environments often leave room for "dirty" practices such as sabotage, retaliation, or dishonesty. We use an online experiment to document aggregate levels and individual differences in the willingness to engage in dirty competition and in the willingness to enter competitions where...

We consider the problem of tracking latent time-varying parameter vectors under model misspecification. We analyze implicit and explicit score-driven (ISD and ESD) filters, which update a prediction of the parameters using the gradient of the logarithmic observation density (i.e., the score). In...

A bi-directional relationship between poverty and mental health may create a vicious cycle, wherein economic hardship and psychological distress reinforce each other. We examine the short-term dynamics between income fluctuations and mental well-being using 17 months of weekly financial diaries...

This paper presents a novel copula-based autoregressive framework for multilayer arrays of integer-valued time series with tensor structure. It complements recent advances in tensor time series that predominantly focus on real-valued data and overlook the unique properties of integer-valued time...

This paper provides quasi-experimental evidence of the health benefits of a largescale, nationwide programme of home energy-efficiency retrofits in the Netherlands, exploiting individual medicine use from insurers' records. We demonstrate that these home upgrades improve children's health, as...

Around 50 years ago, the Netherlands decriminalized cannabis for recreational use. This paper uses retrospective data on the ages at which individuals began and ceased cannabis use to reconstruct its prevalence in Amsterdam during the period surrounding the policy change. This approach enables a...

This paper provides new insights on the importance of family background by linking 1.7 million Dutch children's incomes to an exceptionally rich set of family characteristics - including income, wealth, education, occupation, crime, and health. Using a machine learning approach, I show that...

We develop a score-driven time-varying parameter model where no particular parametric error distribution needs to be specified. The proposed method relies on a versatile spline-based density, which produces a score function that follows a natural cubic spline. This flexible approach nests the...