We employ a money-based early warning model in order to analyse the risk of a low inflation regime in the euro area, Japan and the US. The model specification allows for three different inflation regimes: Low, Medium and High inflation, while state transition probabilities vary over time as a...

Using corpora of business cycle report sections dealing with monetary and fiscal policy issues from 1999 to 2017 and using methods of unsupervised text scaling (Slapin and Proksch, 2008; Lauderdale and Herzog, 2016), namely Wordfish and Wordshoal we scale the institutions' theoretical/ideological...

Using corpora of business cycle report sections dealing with monetary and fiscal policy issues from 1999 to 2017 and using methods of unsupervised text scaling (Slapin and Proksch, 2008; Lauderdale and Herzog, 2016), namely Wordfish and Wordshoal we scale the institutions' theoretical/ideological...

In this paper, we study the impact of oil price shocks on the incidence of protest over the period 1991-2015. Our results indicate that negative oil price shocks are followed by an uptick in the number of protests and that a higher initial size of the shadow economy allows to mitigate the...

In this paper, we study the impact of oil price shocks on the incidence of protest over the period 1991-2015. Our results indicate that negative oil price shocks are followed by an uptick in the number of protests and that a higher initial size of the shadow economy allows to mitigate the...

This study investigates the predictability of revisions to Euro-area major macroeconomic variables using real-time data from the European Central Bank. The application of nonparametric and semiparametric tests enables robust conclusions about the predictability of revisions. Though there is wide...

In this article we derive a microfounded model of money demand under uncertainty built on intertemporally optimizing risk-averse households. Deriving a complete solution of the optimization problem taking the intertemporal budget constraint into account where linearization procedures in our...

Based on a panel of annual data for 17 growth and inflation forecasts from 14 institutions for Germany, we analyse forecast accuracy for the periods before and after the Great Recession, including measures of directional change accuracy based on Receiver Operating Curves (ROC).We find only small...

We analyze a corpus of 564 business cycle forecast reports for the German economy. The dataset covers nine institutions and 27 years. From the entire reports we select the parts that refer exclusively to the forecast of the German economy. Sentiment and frequency analysis confirm that the mode...

This study investigates the predictability of revisions to Euro-area major macroeconomic variables using real-time data from the European Central Bank. The application of nonparametric and semiparametric tests enables robust conclusions about the predictability of revisions. Though there is wide...