This paper uses a tractable stochastic integrated‐assessment model to analyze the influence of climate change on asset returns across time and maturity. Quasi‐analytical, or recursive, formulas allow to price various long‐dated assets, including fixed‐income products, derivatives, and...

This paper considers optimal taxation of housing capital. To this end, we employ a life‐cycle model calibrated to the U.S. economy, where asset holdings and labor productivity vary across households, and tax reforms lead to changes in house and rental prices, interest rates, and wages. We find...

Financial crises appear to have long‐lasting effects, even after the crisis itself has passed. This paper offers a simple explanation based on Bayesian learning from rare events. Agents face a latent and time‐varying probability of economic disaster. When a disaster occurs, learning results...

I study the problem of a decision maker choosing a policy that allocates treatment to a heterogeneous population on the basis of experimental data that includes only a subset of possible treatment values. The effects of new treatments are partially identified by shape restrictions on treatment...

We develop new econometric methods for estimation and inference in high‐dimensional panel data models with interactive fixed effects. Our approach can be regarded as a nontrivial extension of the very popular common correlated effects (CCE) approach. Roughly speaking, we proceed as follows: We...

This paper proposes a new approach to identification of the semiparametric multinomial choice model with fixed effects. The framework employed is the semiparametric version of the traditional multinomial logit with the fixed-effects model (Chamberlain (1980)). This semiparametric multinomial...

We use supervised machine learning to approximate the expectations typically contained in the optimality conditions of an economic model in the spirit of the parameterized expectations algorithm (PEA) with stochastic simulation. When the set of state variables is generated by a stochastic...

We propose a novel way of measuring trust in institutions, which draws on the experimental method used to elicit time preferences. Our measure is provided in the meaningful metric of the subjective probability of trustworthiness of the trustee. In a lab-in-the-field setting in the Philippines,...

This paper reconsiders the question of testing for the presence of Pareto suboptimal capital overaccumulation in overlapping generations economies. The paper allows generation-specific technology shocks to evolve over time according to a stationary Markov chain, and assumes that an...

We experimentally study how people form predictive models of simple data generating processes (DGPs), by showing subjects data sets and asking them to predict future outputs. We find that subjects: (i) often fail to predict in this task, indicating a failure to form a model, (ii) often cannot...