We estimate consumer preferences for "Buy Now, Pay Later" (BNPL) using a large-scale probabilistic stated choice survey experiment. Average willingness to pay (WTP) for the standard BNPL bundle is negative, but younger, lower-income, and less credit-worthy consumers exhibit higher demand. The...

We argue that secular change in both the production and composition of investment goods has weakened investment's role in the transmission of monetary policy to labor earnings and consumption. We show analytically that fluctuations in the production of investment goods amplify the response of...

This study leverages high-frequency foot-traffic data from SafeGraph to estimate demand shocks in customer-facing establishments across New York City's retail, service, and health sectors. Recognizing that variations in foot traffic can arise from both unpredictable demand shocks and firm-driven...

I develop a framework analyzing how artificial intelligence (AI) reshapes monetary policy through three interrelated channels: cyclical transmission, structural transition, and financial stability. In the short run, AI can alter inflation dynamics by changing how supply and demand disturbances...

We study the interconnection between the productivity and pricing effects of financial shocks. Combining administrative records on firm-level output prices and quantities with quasi-experimental variation in credit supply, we show that a tightening of credit conditions has a persistent, yet...

We assess whether the Fed's asset purchases can be tailored to either restore market functioning or provide economic stimulus. When the communicated goal is restoring market functioning and purchases' implementation is flexible, flow effects are significant: relative price deviations narrow....

Since the 2018 Murphy v. NCAA decision, 38 states have legalized mobile sports betting. We study effects on betting and consumer credit, emphasizing spatial spillovers across state lines. Using consumer spending data and an extended two-way fixed effects framework that separately identifies...

We propose a theory of stablecoin disintermediation, whereby stablecoins not only erode banks' deposit franchises but also transmit liquidity stress to the banking system. Using transaction-level data linking onchain transactions to wholesale interbank payments, we document the first evidence of...

We propose a quantitative framework to track systemic risk arising from cyber vulnerabilities of the U.S. financial system. Synthesizing financial, economic, cyber, and network data that covers thousands of financial institutions and technological firms, we develop an index that tracks...

We propose a macro-finance model in which inflation, growth, and the policy rate are driven by unobservable long-run trends and transitory cycles that investors must infer from aggregate data. Their subjective estimates of these trends, and the uncertainty surrounding them, are priced into the...