This paper discusses formal quantitative algorithms that can be used to identify business cycle turning points. An intuitive, graphical derivation of these algorithms is presented along with a description of how they can be implemented making very minimal distributional assumptions. We also...

We discuss and reconcile two diametrically opposed views concerning the future of world oil production and prices. The geological view expects that physical constraints will dominate the future evolution of oil output and prices. It is supported by the fact that world oil production has...

This paper proposes a sticky inflation model in which inflation persistence is endogenously generated from the optimizing behavior of forward-looking firms. Although firms change prices periodically, their ability to fully adjust them in response to changes in economic conditions is assumed to...

We construct a New Keynesian DSGE model that features financial frictions, investment frictions, long-run productivity risk, and Epstein and Zin (1989) preferences. The model successfully reproduces key features of both asset prices and macroeconomic quantities. Under this set up, we examine the...