This article considers a stable vector autoregressive (VAR) model and investigates return predictability in a Bayesian context. The VAR system comprises asset returns and the dividend-price ratio as proposed in Cochrane (2008), and allows pinning down the question of return predictability to the...

Time-varying parameter (TVP) models are very flexible in capturing gradual changes in the effect of explanatory variables on the outcome variable. However, in particular when the number of explanatory variables is large, there is a known risk of overfitting and poor predictive performance, since...

Time-varying parameter (TVP) models are very flexible in capturing gradual changes in the effect of explanatory variables on the outcome variable. However, in particular when the number of explanatory variables is large, there is a known risk of overfitting and poor predictive performance, since...

In this paper, we study data on discrete labor market transitions from Austria. In particular, we follow the careers of workers who experience a job displacement due to plant closure and observe - over a period of forty quarters - whether these workers manage to return to a steady career path....

In this paper, we study data on discrete labor market transitions from Austria. In particular, we follow the careers of workers who experience a job displacement due to plant closure and observe - over a period of forty quarters - whether these workers manage to return to a steady career path....

In this paper, we study data on discrete labor market transitions from Austria. In particular, we follow the careers of workers who experience a job displacement due to plant closure and observe - over a period of forty quarters - whether these workers manage to return to a steady career path....

In this paper, we study data on discrete labor market transitions from Austria. In particular, we follow the careers of workers who experience a job displacement due to plant closure and observe - over a period of forty quarters - whether these workers manage to return to a steady career path....

In this paper, we study data on discrete labor market transitions from Austria. In particular, we follow the careers of workers who experience a job displacement due to plant closure and observe - over a period of forty quarters - whether these workers manage to return to a steady career path....

In this paper, we study data on discrete labor market transitions from Austria. In particular, we follow the careers of workers who experience a job displacement due to plant closure and observe - over a period of forty quarters - whether these workers manage to return to a steady career path....