We show that Bayesian posteriors concentrate on the outcome distributions that approximately minimize the Kullback-Leibler divergence from the empirical distribution, uniformly over sample paths, even when the prior does not have full support. This generalizes Diaconis and Freedman (1990)'s...

We use an evolutionary model to determine which misperceptions can persist. Every period, a new generation of agents use their subjective models and the data generated by the previous generation to update their beliefs, and models that induce better actions become more prevalent. An equilibrium...

This note discusses functions over lotteries that are concave and continuous, but not necessarily superdifferentiable. Machina [1984] and Maccheroni [2002]’s analyses of utility functions over lotteries and the statement of Theorem 2 in Frankel and Kamenica [2019]’s proposed measure of...

We show that Bayesian posteriors concentrate on the outcome distributions that approximately minimize the Kullback–Leibler divergence from the empirical distribution, uniformly over sample paths, even when the prior does not have full support. This generalizes Diaconis and Freedman's (1990)...

We use an evolutionary model to determine which misperceptions can persist. Every period, a new generation of agents use their subjective models and the data generated by the previous generation to update their beliefs, and models that induce better actions become more prevalent. An equilibrium...

Economists often estimate models using data from a particular setting, e.g. estimating risk preferences in a specific subject pool. Whether a model’s predictions extrapolate well across settings depends on whether the estimated model has captured generalizable structure. We provide a tractable...