The paper looks at the question of measuring the importance of shocks to cycles. We consider two types of cycles - oscillations and those summarized by the NBER that require a study of growth in activity to establish turning points in the level of activity. The latter demarcate expansions and...

The paper adds money supply and inflation expectations shocks to a well-known three-variable structural model that identifies oil price shocks through fundamentals affecting the oil market. Impulse responses show the significance of our two additional monetary shocks in impacting real oil...

The paper adds money supply and inflation expectations shocks to a well-known three-variable structural model that identifies oil price shocks through fundamentals affecting the oil market. Impulse responses show the significance of our two additional monetary shocks in impacting real oil...

The paper adds money supply and inflation expectations shocks to a well-known three-variable structural model that identifies oil price shocks through fundamentals affecting the oil market. Impulse responses show the significance of our two additional monetary shocks in impacting real oil...

Angeletos et al. (2020) (ACD) identify a main shock among oscillations for 10 variables, including Total Factor Productivity (TFP). A striking conclusion is that the "main" shock has little effect on TFP, from which ACD call into question models that make TFP important for cycles. We show that...

The paper adds money supply and inflation expectations shocks to a well-known three-variable structural model that identifies oil price shocks through fundamentals affecting the oil market. Impulse responses show the significance of our two additional monetary shocks in impacting real oil...