Okun's misery index (MI), the sum of unemployment rate and inflation rate, is a popular measure of the state of the economy and thus of (macro) '' Economic Discomfort'' as well as of government performance. We calculate the MI and some augmentations for Germany (until 1990: West Germany) for the...

Okun's misery index (MI), the sum of unemployment rate and inflation rate, is a popular measure of the state of the economy and thus of (macro) '' Economic Discomfort'' as well as of government performance. We calculate the MI and some augmentations for Germany (until 1990: West Germany) for the...

Der 13. Konjunkturzyklus nähert sich in Deutschland seinem Ende und die Sorgen sind groß, dass eine Rezession bevorsteht. Eine zunehmende Zahl von Indikatoren deuten in diese Richtung und die Fehlermargen der aktuellen Prognosen schließen dies ohnehin nicht mehr aus. Dass bislang Prognostiker...

Der 13. Konjunkturzyklus nähert sich in Deutschland seinem Ende und die Sorgen sind groß, dass eine Rezession bevorsteht. Eine zunehmende Zahl von Indikatoren deuten in diese Richtung und die Fehlermargen der aktuellen Prognosen schließen dies ohnehin nicht mehr aus. Dass bislang Prognostiker...

Our paper examines the accuracy of growth and inflation forecasts for 19 countries, published by the International Monetary Fund, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany's Joint Diagnosis, or FERI, a private German forecaster, during 2001-2015. Despite dismal accuracy...

Our paper examines the accuracy of growth and inflation forecasts for 19 countries, published by the International Monetary Fund, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany's Joint Diagnosis, or FERI, a private German forecaster, during 2001–2015. Despite dismal...

Forecasts for the Chinese economy are often seen as unreliable. This impedes a proper assessment of the country’s course, and given that China is the world’s second-largest economy, it also has implications for international projections. This article examines the accuracy of real GDP...