Barrell, Ray; Davis, E. Philip; Liadze, Iana; D, Karim - National Institute of Economic and Social Research - 2010
Given the magnitude of “global imbalances” in the run-up to the subprime crisis, we test for an impact of the current account balance on the probability of banking crises in OECD countries since 1980. This variable has been neglected in most early warning models to date, despite its...