Recent major economic shocks such as Brexit, US-China trade tensions, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian sanctions have led to renewed interest in the impact of trade policies and trade disruption on macroeconomic variables. The scale of these events has meant that quantification can spill...

This report analyses the broad risks associated with sectoral output disruptions both domestically and abroad, examining several exposure metrics. The results indicate that domestic shocks generally have larger sectoral impacts than foreign shocks. In most cases, foreign production disruptions...

Supply chain disruptions, related to natural events or geopolitical tensions, have in recent years prompted policy makers to identify potential vulnerabilities related to critical trade dependencies. These are commercial links that could potentially impose significant economic or societal harm,...

The challenge of achieving net zero CO2 emissions will require a significant scaling up of production and international trade of several raw materials which are critical for transforming the global economy from one dominated by fossil fuels to one led by renewable energy technologies. This...

International trade and in particular global value chains have provided many economies with new opportunities to participate in international trade and access new technologies. The COVID-19 pandemic has brought to the fore specific vulnerabilities in some supply chains and ignited a discussion...

Amidst the recovery from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has resulted in new challenges to the global economy and to international trade. This report relies on detailed trade data to assess the impact of these two overlapping shocks on...

This report is the result of the joint work of a number of experts from various fields who have been - for many years – analysing the multidimensional effects of EU institutions and cooperation with Member States pursuant to European values and mechanisms. The authors summarise the benefits of...

The COVID-19 pandemic and associated policy responses are likely to alter the global economy in a way that affects its ability to adjust to future shocks and changes. This paper develops a point of reference for thinking about developments which could be deemed long-term and which could in turn...