What can we learn from the high-frequency responses in bond and currency markets to the recent tariff announcement about the status of the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency? The dollar depreciated by 6.5% after April 1 in spite of rising U.S. interest rates and market volatility, which...

Treasury markets respond to the news in CBO cost estimates of individual bills about the future funding requirements from pending legislation. Treasury yields increase on days with major deficit-increasing bills, driven by an increase in expected inflation and nominal term premia, along with a...

Unfunded fiscal shocks are a significant source of risk premia in Treasury markets when central banks and governments decide to insulate taxpayers and expose bondholders' wealth to government funding needs. We illustrate this bond risk premium mechanism analytically in a two-agent model...

Using high-frequency spending data, we show that household consumption displays excess sensitivity to salient macro-economic news, even when the news is not real. When the announced local unemployment rate reaches a 12-month maximum, local news coverage of unemployment increases and local...