It is widely accepted that episodes of social unrest, conflict, political tensions and policy uncertainty affect the economy. Nevertheless, the real-time dimension of such relationships is less studied, and it remains unclear how to incorporate them in a forecasting framework. This can be partly...

Central bank liquidity lines have gained momentum since the global financial crisis as a crosscurrency liquidity management tool. We provide a complete timeline of the ECB liquidity line announcements and study their signalling and spillback effects. The announcement of an ECB euro liquidity...

Large swings in cross-border capital flows can have consequences for domestic stability and open a channel for the transmission of shocks and spillovers across economies, including the euro area. Against this backdrop, the present paper reviews new evidence for the effectiveness of capital flow...

Central bank liquidity lines have gained momentum since the global financial crisis as a crosscurrency liquidity management tool. We provide a complete timeline of the ECB liquidity line announcements and study their signalling and spillback effects. The announcement of an ECB euro liquidity...

This paper describes the set of Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) models that Banco de España uses to project GDP growth rates and to simulate macrofinancial risk scenarios for Brazil and Mexico. The toolkit consists of large benchmark models to produce baseline projections and various...

Large swings in cross-border capital flows can have consequences for domestic stability and open a channel for the transmission of shocks and spillovers across economies, including the euro area. Against this backdrop, the present paper reviews new evidence for the effectiveness of capital flow...

It is widely accepted that episodes of social unrest, conflict, political tensions and policy uncertainty affect the economy. Nevertheless, the real-time dimension of such relationships is less studied, and it remains unclear how to incorporate them in a forecasting framework. This can be partly...