We find that, while different models used to estimate the output gap in five major emerging economies show similar trends over time, they lead to different conclusions about how well the output gap can predict inflation. This suggests that the choice of model can significantly impact the...

We propose a novel probability approach to examine the sustainability of the current account balance by generating density forecasts and calculating the probability that the current account balance will be lower than a specified threshold. We define a current account as sustainable by having a...