Using a novel and unique panel dataset of individual-level professional forecasts at short, medium, and very-long horizons, we provide new stylized facts about survey forecasts. We present direct evidence that forecasters use multivariate models in an environment with imperfect information about...

Carvalho et al. (2023) propose a theoretical framework that explains longrun inflation expectations' dynamic using short-run inflation surprises and beliefs about monetary policy. In an empirical exercise, they show that this concise framework predicts long-term inflation expectations well over...

When Roosevelt abandoned the gold standard in April 1933, he converted government debt from a tax-backed claim to gold to a claim to dollars, opening the door to unbacked fiscal expansion. Roosevelt followed a state-contingent fiscal rule that ran nominal-debt-financed primary deficits until the...

We study zero interest-rate policy in response to a large negative demand shock when long-run inflation expectations can fall over time. Because falling expectations make monetary policy less effective by raising real interest rates, the optimal forward guidance policy makes large front-loaded...

Using a novel and unique panel dataset of individual-level professional forecasts at short, medium, and very-long horizons, we provide new stylized facts about survey forecasts. We present direct evidence that forecasters use multivariate models in an environment with imperfect information about...

We study zero interest-rate policy in response to a large negative demand shock when long-run expectations can fall over time. Because falling expectations make monetary policy less effective by raising real interest rates, the optimal forward guidance policy makes large front-loaded promises to...

This paper uses data on the expenditures of households to explain movements in the average growth rate of consumption in the U.S. from the beginning of 1982 to the end of 1997. We propose and implement a decomposition of consumption growth into series representing four proximate causes. These...